Roblogg’s Panthers Portal

Yesterday’s incredible Christmastime blowout of the NY lslanders—by the Florida Panthers believe it or not—was as comprehensive as it was unexpected.

Where did that one come from?

Just last Friday I, and most Panthers fans in general (come on admit it!), had this season pegged as a rebuilding season. Perhaps it would be better to just throw in the towel and admit we won’t make the playoffs this time either; for the umpteenth time?

Well, the Panthers answered us back from Newark, of all places, by beating the Devils 4-2 in what was the Cats’ best game of the season. They then went on to pry another point from the reigning champs in Pittsburgh, and subsequently finished off the Islanders with a 7-1 whipping on the Isle.

Now, any Panthers fan will tell you; the Cats spring these startling comebacks every year when they look down and out, only to tantalize the fans a bit before going off on another losing streak. And when they again look down and out they spring another response, etc, ad infinitum.

And of course, in the end, the net result is always another disappointing placing outside of the playoffs.

Consistency has never been the forte of this club, apart from the consistently undulating campaigns of mediocrity and sudden short-lived burst of surging power; always inevitably leading to another season of outsiders looking in syndrome.

Actually, come to think of it—the Cats are very consistent—just not in any positive aspect.

Anyway, back to the point…

The Panthers have enjoyed success on the road this year and are thus still in the playoff hunt; against all odds and despite their worse than poor home record.

The Cats are 4-6-5, thus amassing 13 points on home ice; whilst doing considerably better away with a 9-8-2 record that sees some 20 points having been collected away from the Sunshine State.

Even if the Panthers would win the 3 games less that they’ve played on home ice versus away games—no matter how improbable that would be—they’d still not reach the level of play and points collected away from home.

So what makes these felines tick as soon as they leave South Florida?

I’d say there are a few key words that can go a long way in illuminating this mystery. They are namely: Playing to their strength, a simplified approach, no pressure, and, underestimating opponents.

Let’s look at each more closely and I’ll explain my train of thoughts on the subject:

Playing to their strength

The Florida Panthers are not a high powered offensive juggernaut—yesterday’s Islanders game aside—and don’t dominate many games in any given season. Even in that 7-1 thrashing of the NY Islanders, it is worth noting that the Cats were still outshot 31-25.

The Florida Panthers is a counter attacking team. Again, if we take the Islanders game as example, a majority of the goals came from breakaways—plays that originate from breaking up the opposing teams offensive play—defense to forwards.

The Cats also deploy a dump and chase tactic that will see the Panthers spend most of their time in the offensive zone trying to dig out pucks from the corners. Using their mobile forwards and pinching defenders—the idea is then to set someone up in the shooting zone for a one-timer at goal.

Aggressive forecheck and responsible backchecks are embedded in the players’ mind and stifle to a certain extent any more flamboyant tendencies from the forwards; molding them in to a collective and creating a form of ‘chasing pack mentality’ that is based on speed and responsible defensive play—first and foremost.

The idea is to limit opponent’s shots to the perimeters. Opponents may get many shots off at goal—but they’ll lack precision as well. Put the body on the line to block shots and then hit back on the counter.

Again; speed and mobility is key.

This tactic currently employed by the Panthers is more successful on the road than it is on home ice. Reason is that when playing at home the Cats must also attempt to entertain the crowd and not just put defensive responsibilities first.

The problem is that when Florida open up and try to play more expansive hockey they are typically picked off by teams which a higher collective skill level and individual talents to boast.

As soon as the Cats step away from the collective approach they become sitting ducks for the opposition to shoot down.

Playing away thus keeps the game plan intact and the Panthers can focus on playing the collectively responsible game.

A simplified approach

A closely related point is the simplification of Florida’s game plan away from home.

Any time you want the team to play more expansively, a fair degree of creativity is required, and the Cats are to put it plainly not blessed in this compartment. Especially not when Cory Stillman and David Booth both occupy a place on the long-term injury list.

So when Florida travel north to meet an opponent they do what all teams do—to a certain extent—on the road; they simplify their approach, play more defensively sound, and look to grind down the home team’s early offensive efforts—to hit back later in the game instead.

This approach fits hand in glove with the Panthers original game plan and players available, as previously explained.

No pressure

Playing away is great if a team suffers from certain anxieties when it comes to facing an elevated sense of pressure and expectations upon their individual performances.

Everyone knows this is the case with the Florida Panthers: They don’t deal well with pressure and expectations, period.

As soon as they get into a good spell of performances and the expectations rise as a consequence; they without much further ado head off on another losing streak. Once the expectations then fade—performances pick up again.

Statistically we can look at how the Panthers fare when going in to the third period with a lead and thus face the pressure to try and keep that lead intact or indeed extend it: They are 29th in the league with a .563 record of winning those games.

Also, we can see that the Cats have lost only two points on away ice in an overtime/shootout—whilst on home ice—5 such points have been squandered.

Dealing with pressure situations is clearly not the strength of the Florida Panthers; they do better when coming from behind.

Underestimating opponents

Whilst I’m sure all opposing coaches tell their players not to underestimate the Panthers when they come to town for a visit, it is understandable if this still happens nonetheless.

Florida has no star forward, no defensive powerhouse, and Tomas Vokoun in goal has always been underestimated among goalies.

His numbers are always up there amongst the best and this while playing on a team that regularly allows the most shots on goal in the entire league; yet, he gets very little recognition when he regularly puts up herculean efforts—to give the Cats a chance to win.

Despite the lack of star power the Panthers are a tricky team to play. Their tenacious fore- and backchecking wears on opponents and Florida hardly ever give up a game—they still come surging forward, even long after a game has realistically become a lost cause.

This point in question is highlighted in the last game away to the Washington Capitals on December 3rd.

Despite being 6-0 down in the third, the Cats still kept coming forward and scored a couple of late consolation goals to make it 6-2 instead. It may not change the match, but it gives the club and players some regained pride and belief that can help them in the next one.

We have seen in several games on the road that the opponents had not really expected the Panthers to be in their face as much as they were and lacked the necessary fire to subdue them. Essentially handing the momentum over to the Cats instead—to try and find a way through.

In a league of parity you underestimate an opponent at your own risk, even the Florida Panthers.

After a miserable start to the season the Cats turned their season around with a marvelous winning spell in mid-November, but now—once again—the wheels are coming off. The Panthers are looking decidedly tame at the moment; winning only one game in the last ten.

Yes, you can blame injuries—to key players such as David Booth and Cory Stillman—but that excuse is starting to fall on deaf ears. All teams in the NHL are seeing their roster decimated by untimely injuries; Florida is merely one in a line of clubs feeling that pain.

The players called up from the AHL have done reasonably well, injecting some much needed energy and enthusiasm to the team. However, these players have not been able to contribute offensively to any great extent—only managing a handful of goals overall.

And of the regulars and veterans, very few have made any significant contributions offensively either. Only three forwards have any noteworthy numbers; Stephen Weiss (24 points), Nathan Horton (25), and Steven Reinprecht (23).

And of the defenders, only captain Bryan McCabe (15 points), Dennis Seidenberg (12), and rookie Dmitry Kulikov (12), have done well and contributed to any substantial degree. Tomas Vokoun in goal meanwhile has played very well and done what he can for the team.

It’s just not enough.

Looking at the stats it’s easy to see why the Florida Panthers are in a funk and unable to win themselves a game in regulation:

In goals per game the Cats are ranked at No.25 in the league; scoring an average of 2.48 G/G. At the same time Florida is No.27 when it comes to goals against per game with an average of 3.26.

When it comes to 5-on-5 for/against/ goals ratio—the Panthers rank a tied 28th in the league with 0.75—only Carolina are worse.

So, the power-play and penalty kill must be the saving grace, right?

Not so…

The Cats are 27th in the league with a power-play percentage of 15.2 and are 29th on the penalty kill with 76.4 percent.

To continue this glum list of failures we need look no further than to shots allowed per game; Florida give-up an average of 35.1 shots—which as you would expect puts the Cats at the very bottom of the pile, at No.30. Our 28.6 shots on goals rank us in a slightly better 26th place.

Do I really need to prolong this miserable recount?

Well, maybe just one more to really hammer home my point: The Cats are dead last in the league when it comes to finishing off games when leading after two periods; they are .500 when entering the third with a lead.

Seriously, it is hard to understand what the h*ll coach Pete DeBoer is talking about when he says that: “We’re playing the right way, we’re doing things the right way, we’re not getting rewarded for it right now.”

Really—this is the right way to play?

And I disagree; I think the Panthers are being rewarded amply the way they deserve to be rewarded. The results reflect fairly where the Cats are right now.

Sure, if the games had been 58 minutes rather than 60 we would probably be in a playoff spot right now. But, since when is not a crucial part of the game of hockey to see out matches without conceding in those two last minutes?

To do so a team needs to have determination, grit, and the mental wherewithal to make the right plays at the right time. The Cats clearly don’t have these characteristics and are paying dearly for it—as they should.

This is no fluke, Pete.

I understand that you cannot give up and must try to be optimistic, especially when communicating to your players—even when there is precious little to be cheerful about. But, from a fans perspective, it is hard to have confidence in a coach that is clearly delusional or lying through his teeth.

I like DeBoer, as I believe most Florida fans do, but I don’t like it when he won’t own up to reality. Don’t give us this bs and expect us to swallow it with a grin.

We have had enough of false hope from Florida management over the years. We are quite frankly stuffed—and fed up—with the cattle fescues we’ve been served, thank you.

Just be honest about it: “We’re not better than this at the moment”. That’s all we want!

Of course—a team that knows how to win wouldn’t be bad either—if we take a moment to wistfully wish upon a star…

It is obvious that this franchise desperately needs to reevaluate its philosophy and hopefully the new owners can help in this respect.

However, don’t expect any miracles short term—there is only so much the new owners can do at this point in time—unless of course they can get down on the ice and show our current crop of forwards where the goal is.

The real work that they can do is to steer the franchise forward long term.

The current mess has been handed down from the previous owner, the name we shall utter here no more, and the Viner & Siegel combo should not be held responsible for it—although they are the ones that must, somehow, find a way out of this current prolonged state of hockey funk.

Perhaps the best thing now, if the Cats continue to struggle after Christmas, is to scratch this campaign and look to the trade deadline and draft instead. Certainly this is something that management must consider and plan for.

There comes a point where we must be realistic and say that maybe this team just isn’t better than the statistics clearly indicate. Take responsibility, and then set I motion a far-reaching program of rebuilding—with a clear philosophy at the heart of the process; of how to achieve long term success.

We have tried that tactic before and failed, even if it was haphazard at best, but I see precious few other options available.

With the salary cap effectively making trades near impossible these days, big free agent signings not forthcoming, the draft is all that realistically remains.

This season is not over yet however, and the Cats are a mere few points out of the playoff picture. But, unless a miracle happens, it is unlikely the Panthers will be able to turn this season around.

The stats plainly show that this team lacks substantially when it comes to cutting edge quality—at both ends of the rink.

After losing the first game on the current four game road trip to Columbus on Wednesday, 3-0, the Cats face an even trickier couple of games—as they are set to play New Jersey tonight, Pittsburgh tomorrow, and the NY Islanders on Monday.

Florida then face Atlanta on Wednesday on home ice, after having lost both previous games to the Thrashers this season, and having gone 1-6 against Southeastern rivals overall. This could very well mean that the Panthers are effectively out of the playoff race by this time next week.

And perhaps, being well behind the chasing pack of the East could turn out to be a blessing in disguise—as the franchise could firmly look to the future—rather than try to lure fans to games with false hope and dingy words of optimism whilst clinging to the sinking wreckage that is this team.